02 Feb. 2023

Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s aim has been to make gas supply to Europe as unpredictable as possible and thus undermine economic confidence and EU resolve on sanctions. At the end of July, 2022, Russia reduced gas flows to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% capacity. Further restrictions in supply are likely (e.g. transporting gas via Ukraine to Europe), injecting great uncertainty into the outlook of the region. Efforts to replace Russian gas with other pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) have yielded some results, but cannot go much further in the short term given the limited availability of global LNG supplies and regional regasification terminals.